Musings of Old Man Joe

There and back again!

earth

Climate Change, Climate Sensitivity, the Unknowns.

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Today we have this thing called climate change, most scientists believe we have caused change in the climate by pumping tonnes of CO2 and other chemicals into the atmosphere since the industrial revolution. This theory has been tested since the 1970’s, and most people who have studied the subject believe this to be true.

Because we are doing this climate change thing for the first time. There have been arguments and disagreement with what change will occur and how quickly. I personally believe with some climate scientists that the climate may be changing faster than the climate models have predicted.

Aside from the obvious changes we have seen in the weather in regions around the Earth, fires in Australia and increased fire season in Los Angeles, drought in Texas. In some countries and pacific islands we are looking at the disappearance of habitat; large migrations of people from one part of the planet to another. I was pleased to read recently a leading climate sceptic Professor Richard Muller after an exhaustive study came to the same conclusion, that climate change is real. I am sure at some point in the future most deniers will conclude their wrong; but how long and at what cost?

Also the new technologies that would replace the existing climate polluting hydrocarbons are giving the possibility for cleaner and ultimately cheaper energy. And energy is the future, without energy we are sitting at home with candles or cooking over an open fire.

I believe the climate is changing, this leaves me with a few questions of my own. How will we cope with the migration due to flooding? Why aren’t we taking into account possible changes in climate, and building infrastructure to facilitate future populations? Clean drinking water, water for livestock, what kind of crops yield the most food per acre? How will governments deal with the harsher weather systems and loss of life and property?

Because even the sceptic’s can no longer deny there is a change in weather patterns. The recent attacks seem to be on the data. Just say the scientists are telling climate stories and not climate facts. Like saying the smoke from the house isn’t the color you said it would be, as we watch it burn to the ground.

I sincerely hope that reasonable people come together soon, put the bikering aside and look at the facts. Stop telling the lies that the scientists have some sort of agenda, not too many scientists have solar cell companies, but all too many deniers like the oil business. Don’t invent your own facts and deny the truth. We don’t have much time, I will be fine, but many poorer countries and people who don’t realize how close this all is. They deserve the truth, not stories, not vested interested lies; just the truth!

Global Warming, I Don’t Think So!!

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So my wife asked me today to explain why if there is Global Warming, why doesn’t the world feel hotter?

True the temperature in many parts of the world has seen record high’s recently, but there are still places getting very cold during winter; and the Earth has seen high’s in the past. Would this be the reason some people just don’t believe that global warming is real. We are coming out of the end of an Ice Age, maybe the higher temps are just a consequence of that?

The Earth is a big place, and while we know many things about climate and the processes that affect the weather systems; scientists would admit we don’t have the specifics. We do know the big picture and the types of change that will occur in a warming planet. But because we are doing this warming planet thing for the first time, predicting time lines has been hard. It is starting to look like the earlier predictions were in fact on the optimistic side; change could be quicker than even the scientists thought.

In the earth’s past it has seen very high Carbon levels, and the sea level was both higher and lower than it is today. The Earth was completely frozen at one point, and the south pole was tropical at another period in time. So in the event of global warming causing climate change on the planet, it may be something the earth has seen before and it will get over it!

The difference this time is we (us humans) have been the instigator of climate change due to global warming, and we have changed the makeup of the atmosphere very quickly compared to earth’s history! In the past there have been sharp changes due to volcanic eruptions, burning forests; releasing CO2 in large quantities into the atmosphere. There was devastation and extinction; but again we weren’t here so it didn’t bother us.

So what will I see in my lifetime? Well let me give myself another thirty years on the planet. I will see climate change at first, as the oceans are the trigger for most of the weather on the planet, the rising temperatures will see currents changing and this will have a direct impact on the weather. If the north Atlantic drift bringing warm water up by the west coast of Ireland was to stop flowing; Irelands winter will be much colder! On the coast of California we have already seen warmer summer’s, the fire season is almost all year round now. Hurricanes will be more frequent and have more intensity due to warmer ocean temperatures. Governments are worried at the future cost and damage control.

Ice caps melting giving rise to higher sea levels will change the face of our planet. Bangladesh will no longer exist, Florida will loose much of it’s coastline. The movement of countless millions of people may actually cause wars. This is not a if or a but, just a when! Some western countries are in the habit of leaving hard decisions until the last minute; because we always pull through somehow. This isn’t one of those times because it’s not just one country or even continent; it’s a planet. We can either learn to work together very quickly, believe the science and find answers; or learn to swim!